Visible Alpha
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 37 brokers · 399 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-21.
The street models Salesforce as a durable low-double-digit subscription compounder with steadily expanding margins, but the growth is narrowing to one engine. The Platform & other cloud (Data Cloud and AI) carries the acceleration while Marketing & Commerce stalls, and much of the near-term reacceleration is acquired rather than organic. Backlog metrics keep compounding at double digits, giving good visibility, and free cash flow per share compounds faster than free cash flow itself as buybacks shrink the count. Coverage is deep on the P&L and cash lines but thin on the differentiated SaaS KPIs.
Platform & other is the modeled growth engine — +31% in FY-2027, overtaking Service
Platform & other passes Service to become the largest cloud in FY-2027 and stays there. By contrast Marketing & Commerce is modeled to grow only low-single-digits — a line the street effectively writes off — and Data is lumpy.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026A | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue - Platform and other | $7.19bn | $8.52bn | $11.19bn | $13.41bn | +31.4% | 24 |
| Revenue - Service | $9.10bn | $9.85bn | $10.58bn | $11.46bn | +7.5% | 24 |
| Revenue - Sales | $8.36bn | $9.03bn | $9.74bn | $10.30bn | +7.8% | 24 |
| Revenue - Data | $5.79bn | $6.46bn | $6.65bn | $7.35bn | +2.9% | 24 |
| Revenue - Marketing and Commerce | $5.30bn | $5.46bn | $5.54bn | $5.73bn | +1.5% | 24 |
Backlog still compounds double digits, but current-RPO growth is easing
Current RPO — contracted subscription revenue due within twelve months — is the cleanest read on future revenue; it keeps growing double digits but the pace eases from a mid-teens FY-2026 rate toward low double digits. Total billings, total RPO and deferred revenue keep a similar pace.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026A | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue - Subscription and support | $35.74bn | $39.35bn | $44.04bn | $48.38bn | +11.9% | 36 |
| RPO - Current | $30.15bn | $34.58bn | $38.97bn | $43.06bn | +12.7% | 27 |
| Total RPO | $61.62bn | $70.74bn | $79.37bn | $84.50bn | +12.2% | 20 |
| Total billings | $39.43bn | $43.81bn | $48.67bn | $53.11bn | +11.1% | 33 |
| Total deferred revenue | $20.61bn | $23.10bn | $26.79bn | $29.36bn | +16.0% | 30 |
The Data-Cloud-led Platform ramp is where brokers most disagree
Consensus on total subscription revenue is tight; the real debate is how steep the Platform ramp gets. The spread widens sharply into FY-2028, where a handful of bulls stretch the range far above a tightly clustered core. Data shows the same pattern on a smaller base.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue - Platform and other | FY-2027E | $11.19bn | $10.44bn–$11.65bn | $9.57bn–$12.73bn | 12 |
| Revenue - Platform and other | FY-2028E | $12.91bn | $11.69bn–$14.15bn | $10.34bn–$18.24bn | 12 |
| Revenue - Data | FY-2028E | $7.25bn | $6.91bn–$7.72bn | $6.21bn–$9.38bn | 12 |
Steady margin expansion and buyback-boosted free cash flow per share
Operating margin grinds higher each year while gross margin holds near four-fifths of revenue — the story is operating leverage, not gross margin. Free cash flow per share climbs faster than free cash flow itself as buybacks reduce the share count.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026A | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating margin(%) | 32.9% | 34.1% | 34.3% | 35.2% | +0.3pt | 37 |
| Gross margin - Operating(%) | 80.6% | 80.6% | 80.8% | 81.0% | +0.1pt | 33 |
| Free cash flow | $12.21bn | $14.09bn | $15.10bn | $16.29bn | +7.2% | 33 |
| Free cash flow per share($) | $12.53 | $14.68 | $17.77 | $19.38 | +21.1% | 32 |
The FY-2027 reacceleration is mostly acquired, not organic
Reported constant-currency growth steps up in FY-2027 while the brokers' organic-growth line eases, so the swing is inorganic. The driver is the Informatica subscription contribution, which jumps roughly fivefold year on year; strip it out and underlying growth is flat-to-down versus FY-2026. This is the differentiated read behind the headline reacceleration the CapIQ tab shows.
Deep on the financials, thin and single-broker on the SaaS KPIs
Total revenue, subscription, billings, margins and free cash flow carry 30-plus brokers and were revised through 2026-07-21. But ARR is a single-broker figure in the forward years, and renewal billings, renewal rate and churn each rest on one to four brokers — treat them as one analyst's view, not consensus. Product-cloud detail also thins to about 12-13 brokers for FY-2027/28, and a new Agentforce / Data 360 split (14 brokers, revised in late May) sits alongside the older cloud map.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.